REGISTER POLITICAL COLUMNIST Iowa Republicans and Democrats sounded populist trumpets and reconfigured the 2008 presidential races in Thursday’s caucuses as they turned out in record numbers to hand victories to outsider, change-oriented candidates — and defeats to early favorites seen as establishment candidates.
Barack Obama’s victory in the Democratic contest gives him an important shot of energy as he heads into the New Hampshire primary next week and several big-state contests following that. Hillary Clinton, who leads in national polls, was sent reeling by her third-place showing in Iowa.
John Edwards captured second place using populist themes, but he needed to do better than that in a state where he also placed second four years ago.
Mike Huckabee’s win on the Republican side upends the GOP race and puts one-time front-runner Mitt Romney in desperate straits as he heads into New Hampshire — where John McCain is already moving up in the polls.
The overarching theme to the evening was one of populism, the politics of the little guys vs. the big guys, the outsider vs. the insider, the angry against the satisfied, change vs. experience.
In both parties, those who best captured the message of change on behalf of average Americans captured the victories.
While Obama’s victory dealt a hard blow to Clinton’s campaign, it may prove fatal to Edwards’ bid. His inability to win in Iowa after years of campaigning here raises questions about his ability to raise money and generate momentum for his candidacy in the weeks ahead, despite his desire to continue.
Obama comes out of Iowa as the hot candidate in the race for the presidency, his rock-star status even more glittering. As a result of Thursday’s victory and the media attention and money it brings him, national polls are likely to show him rising and Clinton and Edwards in trouble. Obama is likely to rally anti-Clinton voters, taking them away from the ailing Edwards.
Obama won by attracting new caucusgoers, including a lot of independents who reregistered as Democrats to participate. He also attracted support from younger caucusgoers to topple Clinton, who had hoped to attract enough first-time female caucusgoers to stave off the Edwards and Obama forces. Instead, the entrance polls showed Obama actually attracted more women than Clinton did.
The fact that Obama, who was just a state senator from Illinois four years ago, and Edwards, who morphed into a fiery us-vs.-them candidate for this presidential run, captured the top two spots is evidence that the Democratic activists in the nation’s heartland want the country to change and move on.
While many Iowa Democrats said they liked Clinton, they also indicated they didn’t think she could win a November election because her unfavorable ratings are so high. Despite a monumental campaign effort in Iowa, she was unable to knock down her top two rivals enough to fashion a victory here.
On the Republican side, Romney spent millions and campaigned incessantly in Iowa. As a result, he led for months in the state, but he sagged as Huckabee gained strength by rallying social conservatives and those Republicans concerned about Romney’s Mormon faith and his electability.
Romney’s changes of position on issues such as abortion rights also rattled many GOP social conservatives who saw a more consistent pro-lifer in Huckabee.
In the end, both Clinton and Romney suffered from questions about their fuzzy messages.
Like the top Democratic finishers, Huckabee sounded a populist theme. His attacks on Bush administration foreign policy and economics often sounded as if they were coming from Edwards’ campaign.
Huckabee’s win in Iowa derailed Romney, who had led in polls in New Hampshire and who now is open to defeat at the hands of an energized John McCain in that state.
The Republican race could quickly become a jumble, with Huckabee winning Iowa, McCain winning New Hampshire, Romney out in the cold and Rudy Giuliani waiting to get a game going in the big states in February.
After Obama and Huckabee, the big story of the night was McCain, who was in a close battle for third place with Fred Thompson in the Republican race.
That’s something no one expected a few months ago, when McCain’s campaign seemed on the ropes after poor fundraising, excessive spending and troubles over two issues: immigration and the Iraq war.
But McCain doggedly continued his campaign. As the haggling over immigration legislation in Congress faded and U.S. fortunes in Iraq improved, so did McCain’s chances. McCain is the original scrappy, anti-Washington candidate in this race, and his showing, too, underscored the populist theme of the evening.
Clinton, the former first lady and current New York senator, and Romney, a one-time investment banker who made himself a fortune, got themselves into the positions of being early national front-runners who then became targets for other candidates trying to overtake them in Iowa. In both cases, they were upended.
Thursday’s results will cause soul-searching in some camps today. Those who finished worse than third will be asking whether, and how, to continue. Historically, candidates who finish worse than third in Iowa quickly fade as their money dries up and media attention shifts to the top three contenders.
That process began Thursday night. Democrats Chris Dodd and Joe Biden withdrew from the race. Bill Richardson has to be asking whether it’s worth slogging through New Hampshire. The same holds true for Republicans Duncan Hunter and maybe Thompson.
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