Zogby Poll Obama Leads in CA by 13

Released: February 05, 2008

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: McCain Dominates GOP Races; Dems Locked in Tight Contests As Super Tuesday Polls Open

UTICA, New York – The final day of polling before Super Tuesday was one of hardening positions in key races across the country, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey work shows.

Arizona Sen. John McCain continued to dominate among Republicans in the states polled in the surveys, with 50% or more supporting him in New Jersey and New York. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won less than half that in those states.

Romney continued to lead, however, in delegate-rich California, with 40% support in that state, to McCain’s 33%. The Republican race was tighter in Missouri, with McCain ahead with 34% support, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in second with 27% and Romney third with 25% support.

On the Democratic side, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama continued to fight neck and neck for their party’s voters and delegates. Obama solidified his lead in California, but Clinton pulled ahead in New Jersey, where the two had been tied in the previous poll.

This is the third release of figures from rolling telephone tracking polls in New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Missouri and California. In Georgia, only the Democratic race was polled and in New York only the Republican race.

Pollster John Zogby: “In California, we have Obama polling into a 13-point lead. Monday was another big single day of polling for him there. What has happened here is that in addition to building leads among almost every part of his base of support, he has dramatically cut into Clinton’s lead among Hispanic voters.

“On the Republican side in California, Romney has solidified his edge over McCain by virtue of a very strong showing in Southern California.

“In New Jersey, Clinton has pulled into a lead. She is ahead among Democrats, women, and Hispanics. Obama is ahead among independent voters.

“In Missouri, Obama leads the Democratic race on the strength of big support in the St. Louis region. Overall in the Democratic race here, it is just too close to call.”
New Jersey - Republicans
Republicans


2/2-4


2/1-2/3


1/31-2/2

McCain


53%


52%


54%

Romney


24%


26%


23%

Huckabee


5%


7%


7%

Paul


4%


4%


4%

Someone else


4%


3%


3%

Undecided


10%


9%


10%

McCain held steady in New Jersey with 53% support, compared to Romney’s 24%. Romney had dropped two points. Huckabee, too, lost two points, to end the final day before the vote with just 5% support. McCain had 50% support from registered Republicans and 63% from independents. Romney had 24% support from both those groups. Though 56% of voters under 30 preferred McCain, to Romney’s zero support, 31% of those young voters remained undecided. Older voters were more certain of their choices- only 9% were undecided. Forty-seven percent liked McCain, compared to 30% for Romney. The three-day tracking survey included 862 likely voters and carried a margin for error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
New Jersey - Democrats
Democrats


2/2-4


2/1-3


1/31-2/2

Clinton


46%


43%


43%

Obama


41%


43%


42%

Gravel


<1%


1%


1%

Someone else


3%


3.4%


4%

Undecided


10%


10%


10%

Clinton’s lead over Obama in New Jersey grew in the final day before the primary. The two frontrunners had been tied at 43% the day before, but Clinton jumped to 46% support as Obama dropped to 41% support Monday. The former First Lady was well ahead of Obama among registered Democrats, with 48% to his 39% support. Obama, however, had a big edge with independent voters, with 49% of their support to Clinton’s 39%. Voters under 30 backed Obama overwhelmingly, 63% to Clinton’s 36%. Though 10% of New Jersey voters were undecided, only 2% of the youngest voters were. Clinton dominated with older voters, getting 60% of their support to Obama’s 24%. The three-day tracking survey included 872 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
New York - Republicans
Republicans


2/3-4


2/1-2/3


1/31-2/2

McCain


56%


53%


49%

Romney


20%


19%


23%

Huckabee


7%


8%


8%

Paul


2%


5%


6%

Someone else


4%


5%


5%

Undecided


11%


10%


8%

McCain continued to build his lead in New York on the eve of the primary, adding three points to his total support to end up with 56% backing from the state’s republican voters. He made gains in both New York City and the upstate region, going from 59% to 64% support in the city and from 47% to 51% upstate. He lost a point of support in the New York City suburbs, however, ending up with 61% support there. Second-place Romney trailed with 20% support in the state as a whole, 21% upstate, 18% in the city and 19% in the suburbs. The two-day tracking survey included 836 likely Republican voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
Georgia - Democrats
Democrats


2/2-2/4


2/1-2/3


1/31-2/2

Obama


49%


48%


48%

Clinton


29%


31%


28%

Gravel


1%


2%


1%

Someone else


9%


10%


10%

Undecided


12%


11%


13%

Obama’s strong lead over Clinton broadened by three points in the final day before Super Tuesday. He ended Monday with 49% support, up a point from the day before, compared to Clinton’s 29% support, which was down two points from the previous day. Black voters, who make up about half the sample, gave Obama 68% support, up a point from the day before. Clinton, meanwhile, lost a point among African-American voters to end at 17%. Obama even edged up a notch among women. He was already well ahead of Clinton with Georgia women, and closed the tracking period with 48% of their support. This three-day tracking survey included 865 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
Missouri - Republicans
Republicans


2/2-2/4


2/1-3


1/31-2/2

McCain


34%


35%


36%

Huckabee


27%


27%


27%

Romney


25%


24%


22%

Paul


4%


5%


4%

Someone else


2%


3%


2%

Undecided


7%


8%


9%

The GOP contest here is a tight one, splitting three ways, as McCain enjoys big support among moderates and even leads slightly among mainline conservatives. Huckabee leads Romney among the “very conservative.” This three-day tracking survey included 860 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
Missouri - Democrats
Democrats


2/2-2/4


2/1-2/3


1/31-2/2

Obama


45%


47%


43%

Clinton


42%


42%


44%

Gravel


<1%


<1%


1%

Someone else


3%


3%


3%

Undecided


9%


9%


10%

Obama holds a tiny edge here, as he leads by 10 points among men and trails Clinton by only two points. He leads big in the St. Louis area, which borders his home state of Illinois. This three-day tracking survey included 860 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
California - Republicans
Republicans


2/3-4


2/1-2/3


1/31-2-2

Romney


40%


40%


37%

McCain


33%


32%


34%

Huckabee


12%


12%


12%

Paul


3%


5%


5%

Someone else


4%


4%


5%

Undecided


8%


8%


7%

There was little movement in the GOP race in California in the last 24 hours, as Romney held onto a lead at the very edge of the margin of error. Romney retains an edge among both men and women. He has had trouble holding support among men elsewhere. Among almost all age groups, McCain and Romney were tied, except among those age 30 to 49, where Romney enjoyed a big lead. Romney leads big among those who felt immigration was the biggest issue in the campaign, while McCain led among those who thought the economy or the Iraq war were most important. This two-day tracking survey included 833 likely Republican primary voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
California - Democrats
Democrats


2/3-4


2/1-2/3


1/31-2/2

Obama


49%


46%


45%

Clinton


36%


40%


41%

Gravel


1%


<1%


<1%

Someone else


5%


5%


6%

Undecided


9%


9%


9%



Obama has built a sturdy lead here, among both Democrats and independents. He leads Clinton big among both men (55% to her 29%) and women (45% to her 42%). He leads among all age groups except among those age 65 and older, where Clinton holds a slim edge. He leads among both moderates and progressives, but those mainline liberal Democrats still favor Clinton by a very narrow margin. This two-day tracking survey included 895 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

For a detailed methodological statement on this polling, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1273
(2/5/2008)