Oh What A Night by David Yapsen

Oh What A Night

Posted 1/3/2008 11:30 PM CST on Des Moines Register

The 2008 Iowa caucuses are history. And what a night they provided. Both parties offered competitive presidential races and Iowans trekked out in large numbers to voice preferences.

Some observations:

*Barack Obama’s big victory may well slingshot him to the nomination and the White House. He comfortably beat the national frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, who finished third. She’s left reeling and the second place finisher, John Edwards, wound up exactly where he was four years ago: In second place.

*Obama’s victory speech was soaring, akin to the great Jefferson Jackson Dinner speech he gave in November. Clinton and Edwards tried to put a brave face on things but there was no masking the hard realities they face. Obama's going to be a hard guy to stop.

*It is hard to see how Clinton recovers. Too many Democrats have doubts about her electability and wanted to make a fresh start. It’s also hard to see how she what she can do in the 5 short days before the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. In fact, there’s a danger she’ll go negative and sink deeper as she looks desperate.

*It’s hard to see how Edwards recovers. He needed a victory here, a showing better than he had in 2004, to ignite some national attention to his campaign and improve his fund-raising. He didn’t get it and he had a good base and organization in Iowa. New Hampshire isn’t so strong.
Iowa was a battle to see who would become the alternative to Hillary Clinton. Edwards lost to Obama. The anti-Hillary forces are likely to rally around Obama, not Edwards.

*Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have dropped out of the race. It’s sad. They are well-regarded U.S. Senators who have served their country well. They now join the ranks of many other U.S. Senators in American history who just couldn’t make the transition from the Capitol to the White House. If it’s any consolation, that’s pretty good company.

*Clinton put a lot of emphasis on turning out women. According to the entrance polls, 56 percent of the Democratic attendees were women. But Obama got 33 percent of them. Clinton got 30 percent.

*Obama put a lot of emphasis on turning out young people. According to the entrance polls, 17 percent of the caucus-goers were under age 25. Obama got 56 percent. Clinton got 10 percent.

*One lesson of the night is it helps for a candidate to have a message. Spending time in Iowa is important. Spending money helps too. But having a winning message - something to sell - is more important. Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton spent tons of time and money here but in the end, it was hard for them to define just what they stood for. Obama and Huckabee didn’t have that problem. They were likeable alternatives with a message of change.